2023: Economist Intelligence Unit predicts Tinubu’s victory
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2023: Economist Intelligence Unit predicts Tinubu’s victory


Bola Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2023 general election, is expected to succeed incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has said in a new country report.

It stated the chances of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Atiku Abubakar have been significantly reduced by the internal crisis in the party.

His chances, the report further predicted, have been narrowed by the growing popularity of Peter Obi, the candidate of Labour Party (LP), in the South-East, which is traditionally the powerhouse of the PDP.

Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, defeated several APC leaders to emerge the party’s presidential candidate in May.

Most of his opponents stepped down for him just before the commencement of the primary election, while other aspirants including Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo went ahead to test their popularity with Tinubu, but lost.

However, in recent months, Tinubu’s choice of Kashim Shettima, a former governor of Borno State and a fellow Muslim, as his running mate has continued to generate controversy in the APC and across the country ahead of next year’s election.

But the EIU said it does not appear that the same-faith ticket would affect the chances of Tinubu in the presidential election.

“We expect Tinubu to take the presidency, and recent developments have only reinforced our thinking. It does not appear that a Muslim-Muslim ticket will weigh significantly on Tinubu’s electoral chances,” it said.

Following public outcry, the former Lagos state governor justified his choice of Shettima, saying it was not based on religion or to please one community or the other but to help him govern Nigeria effectively.

“I made this choice because I believe this is the man who can help me bring the best governance to all Nigerians, period, regardless of their religious affiliation or considerations of ethnicity or region,” he said.

But his decision has received wild reactions as many observers within and outside the APC have described the development as a threat to the fragile unity and peace of Nigeria.

Some leaders and critical stakeholders in APC have not hidden their misgivings over the Muslim-Muslim ticket and have accordingly withdrawn their support for the Tinubu-Shettima president bid. Babachir Lawal, a former secretary to the government of the federation and Tinubu’s ally, described the Muslim-Muslim ticket as dead on arrival, saying it would affect the presidential candidate’s chances at the 2023 polls.

The EIU said in 2019 that Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), would win that year’s election. In 2015, it predicted victory for Muhammadu Buhari of the APC.

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